An insightful academic article written by Prof. Dr. Sutay Yavuz, Head of the Department of Sociology at the Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities, analyzing the recent sharp decline in Turkey's fertility rates, has been published on the international population studies platform N-IUSSP.

In the article published on May 18, 2026, Prof. Dr. Yavuz demonstrates that Turkey recorded one of the steepest fertility declines in Europe, with its total fertility rate dropping from 2.11 to 1.48 children per woman between 2013 and 2024. Utilizing a birth-order analysis, the study highlights the key dynamics and policy recommendations:

• Second Births Account for the Largest Drop: Contrary to popular belief that delayed parenthood is the sole driver, a parity decomposition reveals that the largest share of the downturn (nearly 40%) stems from a decrease in second births. This suggests that the issue is less about whether couples become parents at all, and more about whether families move beyond their first child.

• Postponement of Family Formation: The mean age at first birth rose from 25.5 to 27.3 years during this period, with childbearing becoming increasingly concentrated in the late 20s and early 30s.

• Policy Recommendations: Prof. Dr. Yavuz emphasizes that if sustaining fertility is a policy goal in Turkey, interventions should focus less on broad numerical targets (e.g., the "three children" rhetoric) and more on supporting couples at critical bottlenecks: namely, addressing delayed family formation and facilitating the progression to a second child.

You can access the full article via the N-IUSSP website.